March Madness 2025: Playing the Odds

What the Stats Say

What are the odds of your favorite team winning? Image credit: Pixabay:

March is madness, but the matchups make it all happen. Once the tournament reaches its apex of the Sweet 16, fans are given the entertainment, excitement and exuberance that make these few weekends in March and April so much fun.  

Mississippi Looks to Catapult Themselves into Tournament Lore  The schedule for Friday is packed with what figures to be ultra-competitive matchups between some familiar foes and a five-seed from Mississippi looking to catapult themselves into tournament lore. Ole Miss vs. UCLA finds the undersized Rebels going head-to-head with the tournament’s tallest remaining star, Lauren Betts. At 6’7”, Betts has a demonstrative height advantage against even the tallest Rebels. When one team seeks to maximize what they believe is their competitive advantage, the opposition is left with figuring out how to counter. With just a 19.6% projected chance to win, Coach Yo and Ole Miss will need to get creative in defending Betts while managing not to forget about her teammates completely. The Bruins have five players shooting better than 30% from three. If the game plan is to collapse on Betts, Ole Miss better bet UCLA has an off-shooting night. 

Blue Devils vs. Tarheels: North Carolina Foes Promise Intense Competition Duke vs. North Carolina is a squabble among neighborhood friends that you can expect to be intense. In their third season meeting with a trip to the Elite-8 on the line, these Tobacco Road neighbors have had enough of each other. With just a 24.3% projected chance to win, UNC knows that this is a Duke team they can defeat, and winning this game gives them the 2-1 edge in this season’s matchups. I expect Duke freshman Toby Fournier to contribute in a big way to the Blue Devils. She’s averaged 11 points over a ten-game stretch. But let’s not kid ourselves. The Blue Devils run on the energy and athleticism of Jadyn Donovan, Ashlon Jackson and Oluchi Okananwa. Without a scorer averaging more than 12 points per game for the Tarheels, finding buckets can look and feel like some serious labor. If the Tarheels want to advance, many hands will need to make that labor feel lighter. 

Defense Will Decide LSU vs. NC State   LSU vs. NC State could be an epic shoot-out. With Bucket-getters like Aziah James, Zoe Brooks, and Saniya Rivers for NC State and Flau’Jae Johnson, Mikaylah Williams and Aneesah Morrow for LSU, the defense will decide the game. Which team can put together enough defensive stops to create separation and give themselves the edge? The odds say LSU has a 63.8% projected chance of winning. But if you’ve seen the Wolfpack play this season, you know those numbers don’t mean much with this group.  

Can the Maryland Terps beat their 7% odds? 

Maryland vs. South Carolina feels like something different. Maryland expended a lot of energy in their double overtime game against Alabama. With just a 7% projected chance of winning, the Terps can shock themselves and the country by defeating the Gamecocks. They do it by having Kaylene Smikle or Shyanne Sellers play a game like Sarah Ashlee Barker just had against them. South Carolina’s defense hasn’t given up any of those types of games, and their depth will look to exploit the energy expended by Maryland in their last game.  

Notre Dame has a Coach at Her Fourth Sweet-Sixteen   

Notre Dame vs. TCU on a Saturday afternoon, for an opportunity to advance to the Elite-8 is cinematic. The Fighting Irish have an ensemble of players that work as well together as any other team left in the tournament. Hannah Hidalgo and Olivia Miles are a dynamic duo, and they’ve got the nerve to have Sonia Citron, too. Citron is a projected Top-5 pick in the upcoming WNBA draft. The embarrassment of riches isn’t lost on Coach Ivey, who is making her fourth consecutive Sweet-16 appearance. Notre Dame has found themselves on the losing end of a couple of winnable games this season. Now isn’t the time for that. The Horned Frogs, heavy underdogs with just a 20.3% projected chance to win, will have to shoot lights-out and defend well for the entire game. Hailey Van Lith will walk into Saturday’s game as the first player since 2000 to make it to five consecutive Sweet-16 games. There’s a lot there, and enough of it is about what she can do on the court and the type of leadership and fire she brings to her team.  She’ll need everything she’s got against Notre Dame, and so will her teammates.  

Watch the “most dynamic player” in the tournament  Tennessee vs. Texas sees SEC conference foes playing for the second time this season, with Texas winning the first matchup by four. With arguably the tournament’s most dynamic player in Madison Booker, Texas has every intention of winning and advancing. They say everything is bigger in Texas, and the odds say Texas has a 77.7% probability of winning over the Volunteers. The engine that powers the Longhorns is Senior Guard and Texas native Rori Harmon. A sure-fire WNBA prospect; if Harmon can get Booker going early and add double-digit scoring, Texas should prevail. Tennessee has five players who average double-figures, with Talaysia Cooper leading the way. If the Vols can knock down shots from three and stay out of foul trouble, this one could be a nail-biter.  

The Huskies with so Many Players Poised for the WNBA 

Could Oklahoma vs. UConn be our last time seeing Paige Bueckers play basketball? If you believe that I’ve got a bridge to sell you in Idaho. The Huskies win probability is at 87.8%. It isn’t that nobody believes in Oklahoma, it’s that the Huskies have Sarah Strong AND, Azzi Fudd AND, KK Arnold, AND Paige Buckets. Bueckers, everyone’s expected top pick in the upcoming WNBA Draft, has the game and aura to be a cornerstone member of the new generation of talent that will grow the W to astronomical levels. Oklahoma has another future WNBA sure thing in Raegan Beers. Averaging just about a double-double on the season Beers will likely need that production plus some if the Sooners have a chance. The Sooners can shoot and surround Beers with high-percentage shooters at every turn. If she’s cooking and her supporting cast sees a few shots fall early, the Sooners could pull off the upset. 

Can USC Rise Minus Their Star Player?  

Kansas State vs. USC is obviously minus USC’s star, JuJu Watkins, due to injury. That could serve as a confidence boost for the underdog Wildcats. KSU has just a projected 27.6% chance of winning. The one-in-four chance is enough to make them believers. Kansas State doesn’t have USC's names and notoriety, but they don’t let such things factor into their effort and competitiveness. USC’s KiKi Iriafen didn’t have to carry the team during the season but can. The talented and tall California native is ready to put together a string of tournament games to make her fallen teammate proud and move her draft stock up.